Gone are the days when national surveys and statistics published by government used to be useful and trustworthy. With political intervention and cheap feminism oriented politics the veracity of every government data is under question today. We have already shown how India’s census data is fudged to show female feticide when we proved by comparative analysis of 2001 and 2011 census data that women in India seemed to have born at the age of 10 years. Similarly, we have proved that marital rape, child marriage or feminist demand of Delhi is the rape capital of India as false.
In the recently drafted National Policy for Women the WCD ministry had given a hint of how feminists wanted to interfere in these surveys when it mentioned the data through various data sources will be reviewed by the ministry (section V – viii, page 13 of the policy). This clearly showed that now feminists want to manipulate data that can cause harm to the feminist movement.
MRAs have been phenomenal in debunking all feminist propaganda of crimes against women and NCRB data had been of immense help in this success. With careful analysis of NCRB data, the numbers that showed the ‘Number of cases where the trial was completed’ in a given year and the number of cases where the accused were acquitted, MRAs have always proved how feminists and media have been propagating lies about crimes against women. In fact, the business of women empowerment was exposed time and again by MRA groups by citing NCRB data.
Now, all that problem is gone. NCRB data published on their portal from 2016 onwards does not give any idea about the state-wise number of cases where trials were completed or the number of cases where the accused were acquitted. Without these data, no one can calculate the real or false cases. So now the parameter to determine any crime is the number of cases filed under that section. This is a completely wrong parameter to judge anything as anyone can file any number of false cases and will go undetected by the system. This article explains this taking 2016 NCRB data in consideration. Little has been improved since then and one needs to file relevant RTIs and get the required and meaningful data only through hard work.
For instance, if one wants to do an analysis on rape cases filed in different states and how many of them were found to be false based on acquittal numbers, one will fail to get the number. Table 5.6 of NCRB report does give an overall number for India but it does not give any indication of the statewide acquittal numbers.
This year’s data does give a lot more details but most of that is unnecessary. For example, table 1.1 gives a break up of cases registered by oral complaint and by the written complaint. However, it does not specify which IPC or SLL crimes were registered based on verbal complaints. This makes the entire table useless as we don’t know if crimes like rape or murder are being registered based on oral complaints and without any other evidence.
NCRB report also gives ‘Rate’ of a crime which is nothing but the number of cases filed per 100,000 people. This may give a picture of the trend of a crime but it does not give any idea of the actual rate of the crime happening. That can only be obtained through completed cases or acquittal information.
One major fallacy of this report is – the statisticians here calculated the rate of a crime based on the number of crimes reported and not by a number of incidents proven in courts as true. When reporting of a crime like rape (IPC 376) or Cruelty by husband (498a) does not require any evidence this kind of calculation is completely faulty and can only give the wrong picture about crime.
Also, the rate of crime (per 100,000 population) does not mean anything unless we compare the same data over a few years or across different countries.
Table 1.6 of NCRB 2016 report gives data on Number of cases reported (I), Victims (V) and Rate (R) of IPC crimes. None of these separately or in combination give us any information. For example, the data shows Andhra Pradesh had 1099 murder cases reported where there were 1144 victims and the rate was 2.1 cases per 100,000 population. Does this give us any information? What if 1000 of those 1099 cases were actually suicides? Do we know anything from the data? Can we make out if the state needs improvement in law and order?
An in-depth review of Table 1.7 shows a complete mockery of statistics. Per this table, Bihar’s percentage share in sexual crimes is 1.3% is way too low compared to that in Andhra Pradesh 6.2%. Also, the sexual crime rate of Bihar is 1.7 compared to that of 15.7 in Andhra Pradesh or 20.6 in Assam or 22.2 in Odisha. So this basically shows Odisha is 20 times worse state in terms of rape compared to Bihar. This statistical fallacy can be understood well in the article given below –
This year’s NCRB data also tries to capture more information like the cause/motive of a murder (table 3.2) but the data presented leads to more confusion rather than any conclusion. For example, Murder committed due to Love Affair and Illicit Relationship seems to be overlapping unless the latter strictly classify murder in matrimonial relations only and the former do not include any affair within a marriage. Similarly motive of murder being Kidnapping and Abduction raise more confusion than clarifies any. Also, it is not clear if this data is based on cases/complaints filed or based on actual findings after the trial.
Overall, it seems that there is an attempt to mislead people by fudging, manipulating data and by revealing half-truths. This is dangerous for any society particularly at a time when the security of common people is becoming a concern and when anti-national groups are more active than ever. Manipulation of our national stats can easily lead Indians to believe anything which is not true. The result will be a nation moving in a direction other than growth and prosperity. Surely, we don’t want that to happen.